July 25, 2007

Another bubble burst...

This article in today's New York Times paints a stark picture of the housing market. Of course, here in Lyon County we've been heavily impacted by the precipitous down-turn in new construction, and now it looks like there will be even more homes on the market. From the article:

The slumping housing market has become the biggest worry for the stock market, which just four days ago set records, because of its potential impact on the broader economy and financial system.

Countrywide’s stark assessment signaled a critical change in the substance and tenor of how housing executives are publicly describing the market. Just a couple of months ago, some executives were predicting a relatively quick recovery and saying that most home loans would be fine with the exception of those made to borrowers with weak credit who stretched too far financially.

Executives at Countrywide had for some time been more skeptical than others but the bluntness of their comments yesterday surprised many on Wall Street. In a conference call with analysts that lasted three hours, Countrywide’s chairman and chief executive, Angelo R. Mozilo, said home prices were falling “almost like never before, with the exception of the Great Depression.”

Nationally, home prices have not fallen in the 35 years or so that the government and private services have tracked them. Some researchers like Robert J. Shiller of Yale have compiled data that goes as far back as 1890 and shows that home prices fell for several years during the 1930s.

Mr. Mozilo said that because of a large number of homes on the market, the housing sector would continue to suffer until sometime in 2008 and not begin recovering until 2009.

And remember all those home equity loans that were pushing the "home improvement" market and keeping the economy afloat? Well, those chickens are coming home to roost as well.
Countrywide said about 5.4 percent of the home equity loans to customers with good credit that it held an interest in were past due at the end of June, up from 2.2 percent at the end of June 2006. By comparison, more than a fifth of subprime loans were past due at the end of June, up from 13.4 percent a year ago.
Well, I'm off to work. Gotta be able to pay MY mortgage!


Anonymous said...

cls, is your area considered to be "over built" now?

cls said...

All I know is: there are a lot of homes staying on the market, and we aren't seeing new homes going in like they were. Strip malls and quik-marts are starting to go in, but homes? Not really. So, I'd say yes, we are over built now.