June 1, 2008

Yes, she does

Lead in the popular vote count, that is. Now that Michigan and Florida have been recognized (cough) by the DNC, we can now add in the popular vote from those two primaries into the popular vote count. I pulled my data from RealClear Politics, but corrected the final PR total to the total after 100% of Puerto Rico's votes were counted per CNN.

Popular Vote Clinton11,129,044
Popular Vote Obama w/o MI10,684,839
DifferenceClinton +444,205

Okay, but what if we add in Michigan's 238,168 uncommitted votes to Barack's column? Now, since he removed himself from the ballot, the Michigan Secretary of State didn't award them to him, but let's pretend we're the DNC and give him the votes he forfeited. What do we get?

Popular Vote Clinton11,129,044
Popular Vote Obama w/ MI10,923,007
DifferenceClinton +206,037

Whoops! Looks like she wins all that one too.

ETA: Even if you add in Obama's estimated gain of 110,224 votes from the IA, NV, WA and ME caucuses (per RealClearPolitics*, he is still down 95,813+ votes.

*The estimate from these four Caucus states where there are not official popular vote numbers increases Senator Obama’s popular vote margin by 110,224. This number would be about 50,000 less if the Washington primary results from February 19th were used instead of the Washington Caucus results.

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